Panel 1 ( Horizon Scanning in Government and Society )
Moderator: Chan Heng Kee
Deputy Secretary, Public Service Division, Prime Minister’s Office and Dean, Civil Service College, Singapore
This panel will show how horizon scanning is implemented in government and how it makes an impact on strategic early warning and planning. It will enable the participants to make a comparison across different countries and to appreciate some of the best practices.
"RAHS and Strategic Early Warning"
Yeong Gah Hou. Director, Joint Counter Terrorism Centre, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore.
"Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning in the UK"
Major General Michael Charlton-Weedy. Deputy Director for Civil Contingencies and Chief Executive at the Emergency Planning College, United Kingdom.
"Finland’s Whole-of-Society Approach to Horizon Scanning"
Sirkka Heinonen. Professor, Finland Futures Research Centre, Finland.
"Forward Engagement, Complexity and Public Policy"
Leon Fuerth. Professor, Elliot School, George Washington University, United States.
Panel 2 ( Horizon Scanning Approaches )
Moderator: Tan Peng Yam
Deputy Chief Executive (Operations), Defence Science and Technology Agency, Singapore
Moving away from abstract concepts, this panel will highlight practical horizon scanning approaches that have been operationalized in various domains. The focus will be on illustrating the strengths and limitations of horizon scanning approaches with case studies. Speakers will cover a range of approaches, from decision-based scenario planning to horizon scanning based on complexity and chaos theory as well as "evolutionary" and effects-based approaches.
"Strategy and Planning for Deeply Uncertain Futures"
Steven Popper. Senior Economist, RAND Corporation, United States.
"Strategic Thinking in a Complex World"
Irene Sanders. Executive Director, Washington Center for Complexity and Public Policy, United States.
"How our Brains use the Past to Predict the Future"
Andrew Parker. Professor of Physiology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
"An Effects–based Approach to Strategic Planning"
Desmond Saunders-Newton. Visiting Associate Professor, University of Southern California, Senior Science Advisor to DARPA-IAO, United States.
Panel 3 ( Horizon Scanning Applied )
Moderator: Dave Snowden
Founder and Chief Scientific Officer of Cognitive Edge
Against a backdrop of increasingly complex challenges, Panel 3 will illustrate how horizon scanning has been applied across several domains - intelligence, the financial markets, and political and foreign policy issues - as well as a cross-cutting analysis of "seven futures".
"Horizon Scanning and Intelligence"
Adrian Taylor. Director, European School of Governance and Former President, European Open Source Intelligence Forum, Germany.
"Endogenous versus Exogenous Crises"
Didier Sornette. Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks at ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland.
"Making Political and Foreign Policy Forecasts"
Erik Peterson. Senior Vice President at Center of Strategic and International Studies and Director of the Global Strategy Institute, United States.
"Horizon Scanning and Technology: The Deutsche Telekom Experience"
Rene Rohrbeck. Senior Scientist, Berlin University of Technology, Germany.
Panel 4 ( Challenges for Horizon Scanning )
Moderator: Donald Low
Associate Fellow, Civil Service College, Singapore
This panel will deal with the challenges to operationalizing horizon scanning: cognitive biases, practical limits to futures work, communicating scenarios, and making these relevant to the strategic planning process.
"Minimizing Cognitive Bias in Horizon Scanning"
Peter Bishop. Associate Professor, Strategic Foresight, University of Houston, United States.
"Limits to Futuring: What we can’t know about the Future"
Tim Mack. President of World Future Society, United States.
"Communicating Scenarios"
Jerome Glenn. Director, The Millennium Project, United States.
"Making it Relevant to the Strategic Planning Process"
Stephan De Spiegeleire. Director, Defence Transformation, Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, Netherlands.
Key Note Speakers
Moderator: Dawn Yip
"Twine: A Web 2.0 Experience"
Nova Spivack. Radar Networks.
"Technorati: A New Horizon Scanning Experience"
Dave Sifry. Founder, Technorati.
Cocktail Reception Speaker
"Mobile Networks and Horizon Scanning"
Eric Willis. CTO, Offbeat Guides.
>>Symposium Report
