The world finds itself in an era of unparalleled and unprecedented change, and in a geo-strategic environment that is more complex and uncertain. Singapore is certainly no exception. We have been surprised by a series of strategic shocks from the Asian Financial Crisis to the events of 9-11 to the SARS crisis.

We cannot predict the future but we can put in place systems and processes that can help us anticipate possible futures and that can help us be better prepared if something should happen. It is important how governments prepare themselves for this new environment. We must develop more intelligent and robust ways to think about the future.

Scenario planning has been a useful way of thinking about the future and we have used it in Singapore for some 15 years now. But scenario planning does not provide a complete answer. It could not help us anticipate possible futures with a 9-11 or SARS. This is the reason why we began looking at complementary ways such as RAHS.

RAHS is a process of discovery. Some of the concepts and technologies may work, some may not. But it is important to note that it is based on good science and that it is evolutionary. It has also introduced major benefits not anticipated when we first embarked on the project. For instance, we have begun to understand what combination of concepts and technologies have better potential than others. More importantly, RAHS has provided an opportunity to adopt a whole of government approach to strategic planning. RAHS hinges on a collaborative approach linking ministries and agencies across government. If it can connect silos and challenge mindsets, develop an instinct to share and encourage a collective analysis of possible futures, it is worth taking the effort.

>>Development of RAHS